Cure8 research brief
Compares widely used modelled GBD rates with population-based observations and finds they are not interchangeable for country-year estimates—important for research, surveillance, and policy that rely on these numbers.
Researchers in IBD epidemiology, public-health analysts, clinicians and policymakers using GBD estimates
The paper matched GBD 2023 rates to population-based incidence and prevalence observations from GIVES-21 and assessed agreement using Bland–Altman differences, Deming regression, and concordance correlation coefficients.
Median GBD-to-GIVES ratios were generally below 1 (GBD lower than observed) across incidence and prevalence for both UC and CD, and concordance varied by outcome and sensitivity analyses.
The authors emphasize that both data sources are imperfect: the analysis quantifies agreement but does not establish which source reflects the true underlying rates nor support applying a single correction factor to GBD estimates.
Structured content depth is abstract from a posted research paper on Research Square; it summarizes the authors' analyses but has not undergone peer review.
Review the original publication for the complete reporting, methods, and context.
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